đź”— Share this article Can Scotland finally break their long-standing losing streak? The All Blacks introduced multiple adjustments to the side that beat the Irish team Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh When: this weekend Time: 15:10 GMT Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland. After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test. The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent. Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes. During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way. Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done. We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history. Missing Players Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying. During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship. Squad Depth Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time. Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Strategic Decisions Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in 2022 Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory. That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. By the Numbers Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps. What Scotland Needs During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily. The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity. In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks. Conclusion Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance. Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.